Credit: GRI Club European Real Estate Markets: UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, CEE, Portugal
High-level analysis from leading market players of major trends and challenges facing individual European real estate markets
November 6, 2024Real Estate
Wrriten by Helen Richards
Europe’s real estate markets are facing a challenging landscape shaped by diverse macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, each driving unique market responses and dynamics.
This year, Europe GRI 2024 brought together a record number of leading real estate industry players from each of these unique markets - UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, CEE, and Portugal - to share experience and insights, while examining the nuances of individual markets. The consequent report reveals the key takeaways from these high-level discussions.
Read all market specific insights in the full GRI European Real Estate Markets report.
Sector-specific insights show a shift in office demand toward flexible, amenity-rich spaces, ongoing challenges in affordable housing, and a pressing need to modernise ageing infrastructure.
London's commitment to sustainability and emerging sectors like life sciences strengthens its appeal, with efforts to convert older properties and expand urban areas reinforcing its adaptability and growth potential.
Foreign investments, led by the US, remain strong, attracted to Paris' unique cultural appeal, while infrastructure projects like the Grand Paris Express and the Olympics have bolstered regional connectivity and urban development, enhancing market appeal. However, political and taxation unpredictability present ongoing barriers.
Development projects, heavily leveraged during boom years, are now stalling, while stabilised assets continue to hold some appeal. Market segmentation is evident, with prime assets retaining value and lower-tier properties suffering severe declines.
Despite short-term struggles, many remain optimistic about Germany’s long-term market stability, though recovery for lower-tier assets is uncertain.
More than 800 leading real estate market players active in markets across Europe gathered for the most senior industry networking opportunity at Europe GRI 2024. (Credit: GRI Club)
High residential price elasticity in cities like Valencia contrasts with stagnation in secondary areas. The market faces land scarcity and high construction costs, compounded by labour shortages and reliance on foreign equity as domestic savings remain low.
Urban migration has led to vacant rural properties, suggesting redevelopment as a potential solution to housing shortages, while government intervention is urged to make more affordable housing and land available.
Milan has become a prime investment location, now comparable to major European cities, and is attracting interest from Middle Eastern, Asian, and family office investors.
The hotel market shows promise in opportunities for consolidation of what is currently a highly fragmented market, with only 20% of hotels branded, leaving the majority of the market dominated by family-owned or small-scale operators. Meanwhile, growth is projected in the logistics sector, driven by expectations that e-commerce penetration will rise to match higher levels seen in neighbouring European markets.
The region's need for capital has drawn interest from value-add and local investors, while institutional investors remain cautious. Office supply has slowed, pushing rents up, especially outside Warsaw, while the industrial and logistics sector benefits from e-commerce and reshoring trends. The residential market is also growing due to urbanisation and a housing shortage, offering opportunities in build-to-rent and student housing.
Despite geopolitical pressures from the Ukraine conflict and reliance on Germany’s economy, CEE countries are showing resilience, with stronger GDP growth and lower unemployment rates than Western Europe, bolstering investor confidence.
Legislative changes to the Golden Visa and Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) regime have impacted foreign investment. Local demand has helped balance the market, but affordability remains a critical issue, especially in urban areas.
High construction costs and bureaucratic delays in licensing are further slowing development, while conversions of commercial spaces are seen as a potential solution to the housing shortage.
Despite elevated interest rates and market challenges, Portugal's economic and political stability continue to draw investor interest, with optimism for increased transactions as rates stabilise.
Read all in-depth insights into the dynamics of Europe’s individual real estate markets in the full GRI European Real Estate Markets report.
Europe’s real estate markets are facing a challenging landscape shaped by diverse macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, each driving unique market responses and dynamics.
This year, Europe GRI 2024 brought together a record number of leading real estate industry players from each of these unique markets - UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, CEE, and Portugal - to share experience and insights, while examining the nuances of individual markets. The consequent report reveals the key takeaways from these high-level discussions.
Read all market specific insights in the full GRI European Real Estate Markets report.
United Kingdom
London remains a top destination for international real estate investment, considering its flexible transaction environment, strong private equity presence, and promising regeneration projects, though the market faces concerns over planning inefficiencies and tax policies.Sector-specific insights show a shift in office demand toward flexible, amenity-rich spaces, ongoing challenges in affordable housing, and a pressing need to modernise ageing infrastructure.
London's commitment to sustainability and emerging sectors like life sciences strengthens its appeal, with efforts to convert older properties and expand urban areas reinforcing its adaptability and growth potential.
France
The French commercial real estate market has seen a decline in investment volumes, particularly in Paris, though resilience is evident in regional cities like Lyon, Nantes, and Rennes, driven by limited premium assets in the capital and rising interest in logistics, retail, and residential sectors.Foreign investments, led by the US, remain strong, attracted to Paris' unique cultural appeal, while infrastructure projects like the Grand Paris Express and the Olympics have bolstered regional connectivity and urban development, enhancing market appeal. However, political and taxation unpredictability present ongoing barriers.
Germany
Germany’s real estate market is facing challenges due to costly capital, limited liquidity, and banks’ reluctance to write off loans, causing a stagnation in transactions and delaying market corrections. Conservative banking practices and cautious valuations are keeping asset revaluations modest, though discrepancies among valuers are creating market confusion.Development projects, heavily leveraged during boom years, are now stalling, while stabilised assets continue to hold some appeal. Market segmentation is evident, with prime assets retaining value and lower-tier properties suffering severe declines.
Despite short-term struggles, many remain optimistic about Germany’s long-term market stability, though recovery for lower-tier assets is uncertain.
More than 800 leading real estate market players active in markets across Europe gathered for the most senior industry networking opportunity at Europe GRI 2024. (Credit: GRI Club)
Spain
Spain’s real estate market is experiencing strong demand for rental properties, especially in major cities where build-to-rent (BTR) projects are rapidly leased due to limited housing affordability. Developers are shifting from build-to-sell to BTR for quicker returns and fewer risks, though concerns over rent controls threaten investment appeal.High residential price elasticity in cities like Valencia contrasts with stagnation in secondary areas. The market faces land scarcity and high construction costs, compounded by labour shortages and reliance on foreign equity as domestic savings remain low.
Urban migration has led to vacant rural properties, suggesting redevelopment as a potential solution to housing shortages, while government intervention is urged to make more affordable housing and land available.
Italy
High interest rates and a disconnect between buyer and seller price expectations are hindering transactions in the Italian real estate market. Investors are shifting from short-term gains to long-term strategies, focusing on platform-building and stable cash flows, particularly in logistics, hospitality, and offices.Milan has become a prime investment location, now comparable to major European cities, and is attracting interest from Middle Eastern, Asian, and family office investors.
The hotel market shows promise in opportunities for consolidation of what is currently a highly fragmented market, with only 20% of hotels branded, leaving the majority of the market dominated by family-owned or small-scale operators. Meanwhile, growth is projected in the logistics sector, driven by expectations that e-commerce penetration will rise to match higher levels seen in neighbouring European markets.
CEE
Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) is showing signs of recovery in real estate, with 2024 transaction volumes expected to nearly double compared to 2023, led by strong activity in Poland’s office, industrial, and residential sectors.The region's need for capital has drawn interest from value-add and local investors, while institutional investors remain cautious. Office supply has slowed, pushing rents up, especially outside Warsaw, while the industrial and logistics sector benefits from e-commerce and reshoring trends. The residential market is also growing due to urbanisation and a housing shortage, offering opportunities in build-to-rent and student housing.
Despite geopolitical pressures from the Ukraine conflict and reliance on Germany’s economy, CEE countries are showing resilience, with stronger GDP growth and lower unemployment rates than Western Europe, bolstering investor confidence.
Portugal
Portugal’s real estate market remains attractive, especially in tourist hotspots like Lisbon, Cascais, and Porto, driven by demand from American and Brazilian buyers interested in luxury and short-term rentals.Legislative changes to the Golden Visa and Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) regime have impacted foreign investment. Local demand has helped balance the market, but affordability remains a critical issue, especially in urban areas.
High construction costs and bureaucratic delays in licensing are further slowing development, while conversions of commercial spaces are seen as a potential solution to the housing shortage.
Despite elevated interest rates and market challenges, Portugal's economic and political stability continue to draw investor interest, with optimism for increased transactions as rates stabilise.
Read all in-depth insights into the dynamics of Europe’s individual real estate markets in the full GRI European Real Estate Markets report.
