Which country is set to become the “Florida of Europe” for senior living?

Written by Jorge Aguinaga

The GRI Build to Care Portugal Club Meeting brought together leading voices in the country’s healthcare and senior living real estate space to explore the sector’s current scenario and future trajectory in Portugal. 

The event included a site visit to the Momentus Senior Cascais project from our co-host BF Group, offering participants a first-hand look at one of the country’s most advanced senior living facilities.

Discussions revealed that independent living and memory care markets are seeing markedly increased interest compared to more traditional real estate segments, such as student housing. 

This trend reflects a wider demographic movement as an increasing number of retirees in countries such as the United States face social isolation and insufficient support structures, leading them to seek affordable, community-oriented living environments abroad. 

Offering both lifestyle appeal and a supportive care ecosystem, many of these seniors are turning to Portugal due to the prevailing sentiment that it is well-positioned to meet this growing demand.

Redefining care

As conversations at the gathering confirmed, the traditional boundaries of senior living are being redefined. 

With almost one-third of Portugal’s population forecast to be 65 or over by 2040, industry experts provided compelling insights into shifting demand patterns being driven by Portugal’s ageing population, noting a surge in the need for medical assistance, rehabilitation, and end-of-life care.

Most importantly, this shift reflects more than just demographic pressure. It was observed that there is a broader societal transformation underway, with residents increasingly seeking autonomy, engagement, and purpose - even within structured care environments. 

Adapting assets to evolving needs

The sector is evolving toward specialised care environments, including independent living, memory care, and nursing homes. With such segmentation, however, comes the need for adaptability. 

The key question is therefore: how can investors and developers future-proof these assets as resident needs continue to shift?

As reported by one attendee, the answer lies in the development of integrated ecosystems that allow for seamless transitions between care levels. The ability to evolve with the resident's changing conditions will be essential. 

Where hospitality meets senior living

The prevailing sentiment is that senior living and hospitality share operational synergies, particularly in areas such as food services, making the two sectors inherently complementary. 

Discussions highlighted the need for operators to adopt hospitality-inspired service models, balancing comfort, clinical care, and community.

However, concerns persist, with the prevailing sentiment pointing to challenges in securing financing due to the perceived risk profile of the sector, with investors forced to contend with a market that lacks the historical performance data and established benchmarks typically seen in hotels. 

The risk, as highlighted by participants, is both financial and reputational. Investors are acutely aware of the ethical implications that arise from inadequate care provision or the mistreatment of residents. 

Given this situation, it is essential to consider how care providers should respond when residents can no longer afford to pay. 

While the hotel segment continues to benefit from higher liquidity and per-room values, the financial model for senior living remains constrained by affordability issues, noted one participant. 

Rent levels in many residences do not support the yields required by traditional real estate investors, leading many operators to face difficulty in attracting capital, given that expected returns tend to fall short when compared to other asset classes.

Human resources challenges

An additional factor influencing investor caution is the sector’s dependency on human resources. The demand for qualified professionals is increasing, yet the talent pool remains shallow. 

Discussions at the event suggested that the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) could offer partial relief, particularly through the use of data systems and algorithms to optimise routines and improve care delivery. 

That said, the human element in caregiving was widely acknowledged as irreplaceable. While AI may support operational efficiency, it cannot substitute the empathy and judgement essential in direct care.

Public-private contrast

In the midst of these operational and ethical considerations, technological modernisation emerged as another critical issue. It was observed that many facilities, particularly those operated by public, social, or charitable institutions, remain technologically outdated. 

These environments often lack even basic amenities, posing a substantial barrier to meeting the complex needs of an ageing population, with the absence of state-led investment in infrastructure and digital tools cited as a core obstacle to sector-wide progress.

Market leaders noted personal experiences in visiting facilities with substandard conditions, contrasting starkly with the more advanced offerings in the private sector. 

This disparity underscores the broader challenge: while private operators innovate, the public sector struggles to keep pace, returning to the need for systemic support, particularly through the creation of a unified digital platform that addresses both staff productivity and resident care. 

Although some technologies, such as health trackers and wearable devices, have been piloted, consensus posits that the sector has yet to identify a scalable, comprehensive solution that meets the full range of technical, clinical, and user requirements.

Scaling up for investor confidence

The importance of professionalisation was another recurring topic in many of the conversations. Attendees agreed that the market in Portugal remains fragmented, with many residences still operated by families or small-scale businesses. 

One critical factor often overlooked is the role of institutional standards in driving investor confidence. 

To resolve this issue, it was deemed to be essential for the sector to develop larger, professionally managed operators capable of scaling the business model, much like what has occurred in the hotel sector. 

Such a reconfiguration of senior living around scalable platforms could serve to unlock significant investment avenues, as demonstrated by the success of well-established hotel groups.

Looking ahead, an additional factor influencing the sector’s attractiveness is the shifting profile of the investor base itself. 

As the investor demographic ages, the demand for senior living services is expected to rise. There is a growing belief that this ageing group will not only recognise the sector’s relevance, but also its potential as a resilient and socially impactful investment avenue. 

In a world where demographic trends increasingly shape capital flows, the senior living sector is likely to become more prominent on the radar of institutional investors.

The Florida of Europe?

Discussions between these preeminent industry decision-makers covered how Portugal is increasingly positioned as an attractive retirement destination, particularly for North American retirees.

As reported by one attendee with extensive global experience, the prevailing sentiment is that Portugal could emerge as the "Florida of Europe," offering an affordable, community-oriented lifestyle for seniors from countries such as the United States and Canada.
 
This perception is driven by the country’s welcoming culture, widespread English proficiency, and relatively low cost of living. 

With such favourable conditions, there is potential to replicate the kind of growth observed in the tourism sector, this time through a demographic shift towards older residents from abroad.

Senior living stigma

An additional factor influencing market growth is the lingering stigma associated with senior residences. It was observed that such facilities are still frequently associated with institutionalised and outdated care models. 

In response, panelists stressed the need for strategic investment in public education and marketing to reshape perceptions. 

The impact of using ambassadors who are older adults themselves could prove especially powerful in normalising the idea of choosing senior living as a proactive and enriching lifestyle change.

Unlocking Portugal’s senior living potential

With regards to the practical and strategic steps required to elevate the sector, the goal is to demonstrate financial predictability, operational scalability, and to bridge the gap between social needs and investor expectations. 

Both the public and private sectors must collaborate to eliminate structural inefficiencies to succeed in this new environment, but the overall outlook for senior living real estate in Portugal remains highly promising.